POLYMARKET WEATHER BOT — LIVE 24/7

Trade Weather
on Polymarket

4-model ensemble forecasting • GFS · ECMWF · UKMO · MeteoFrance
Bayesian edge detection • Kelly-criterion sizing • 583+ markets

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weatheredge-bot — live scan
❯ weatheredge scan --models all --cities 58
✓ GFS ensemble loaded  31 members
✓ ECMWF IFS025 loaded 51 members
✓ UKMO + MeteoFrance  consensus ready
→ Scanning 583 active weather markets...
EDGE Paris · 17°C NO · market=26.5% model=0.8% · edge=+25.7%
EDGE Seoul · 14°C YES· market=15.0% model=70.2% · edge=+53.2%
EDGE Dubai · 30°C YES· market=42.1% model=78.3% · edge=+35.6%
❯
583
Markets Tracked
4
Forecast Models
82
Ensemble Members
0.25x
Kelly Sizing
Features

Everything you need to
trade weather profitably

Built exclusively for Polymarket weather markets. Every component is optimised for meteorological data and probabilistic edge detection.

🌎
4-Model Ensemble
GFS (31 members), ECMWF IFS025 (51 members), UKMO, MeteoFrance. Weighted consensus — 113 total ensemble members per forecast.
ECMWF 35% · GFS 25% · UKMO 20% · MF 20%
📊
Bayesian Edge Calc
Dynamic σ from forecast horizon (0.8° at 6h to 5.5° at 10d+). Normal CDF probabilities blended with NOAA NCEI 10-year base rates.
theoretical EV gating · max 15% bankroll
⚡
Real-Time Scanning
Scans all 583+ active Polymarket weather events every 5 minutes. Auto-detects city, date and temperature unit from question titles.
5 min refresh · 58 cities
🧠
Claude AI Engine
Claude Sonnet analyses each market with forecast data, model agreement scores, and historical base rates. Returns BUY/SKIP with confidence tier.
Powered by Claude Sonnet
🌍
67+ Global Cities
New York, London, Tokyo, Paris, Dubai, Seoul, Sydney, and 60 more. Auto-detects city from Polymarket question titles. Both °F and °C markets.
US NWS obs · intraday blending
🛡
5-Layer Exit System
Profit target (60% edge captured), edge convergence (<2%), trailing stop (40% pullback), stop loss (−15%), time decay (2h before resolution).
Auto-managed positions
Architecture

Scan → Forecast → Edge → Trade

Three automated steps from market discovery to on-chain execution.

01
Market Discovery
Queries Polymarket Gamma API for all weather-tagged events. Parses question titles to extract city, date and temperature unit. Fetches GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, MeteoFrance forecasts in parallel.
02
Edge Calculation + AI
Builds weighted consensus temperature, calculates dynamic σ based on hours-to-resolution and model spread. Runs Normal CDF probabilities per outcome. Claude AI returns BUY_YES/BUY_NO/SKIP with confidence.
03
Paper or Live Execution
When edge exceeds threshold, Trader executes via FOK market order with 2% slippage fallback. Positions tracked with 5-layer exit monitoring. Full SQLite ledger for P&L.
Paris · March 23 · Max Temp
GFS ensemble (31)
13.0°C
ECMWF IFS025 (51)
15.2°C
UKMO global
12.9°C
MeteoFrance
13.9°C
13.5°C
4-Model Consensus · ±1.9°C
Market pricing 17°C YES at 26.5%
→ NO edge: +25.7% 🎯
FAQ

Common questions

What weather models does WeatherEdge use?+
GFS (31-member ensemble), ECMWF IFS025 (51-member ensemble), UKMO, and MeteoFrance. Weighted consensus: ECMWF 35%, GFS 25%, UKMO 20%, MeteoFrance 20%.
How does edge calculation work?+
Builds weighted consensus temperature, calculates dynamic σ based on hours-to-resolution and model spread, runs Normal CDF probabilities per outcome bin, computes edge vs market price, applies quarter-theoretical EV gating capped at 15% bankroll.
What blockchain does it use?+
Polygon blockchain using USDC, connected to Polymarket's Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) via their official API. Private keys never leave your device — all signing happens client-side.
Is the bot running 24/7?+
Yes. WeatherEdge runs on Railway cloud infrastructure continuously, 24/7, even when your computer is off. Scans every 5 minutes, refreshes forecasts every 10 minutes. Telegram alerts on edge discovery.

Start trading weather
with an edge

Paper mode available — no real money required to start.

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