POLYMARKET TRADING BOTS — LIVE 24/7

Trade Smarter
on Polymarket

Weather forecasting (4-model ensemble, 583+ markets) • Crypto latency arbitrage (15-min BTC, real-time feeds)
Bayesian edge detection • Kelly-criterion sizing • Paper + Live modes

⚡ Weather Bot ₿ Crypto Bot
weatheredge-bot — live scan
❯ weatheredge scan --models all --cities 58
✓ GFS ensemble loaded  31 members
✓ ECMWF IFS025 loaded 51 members
✓ UKMO + MeteoFrance  consensus ready
→ Scanning 583 active weather markets...
EDGE Paris · 17°C NO · market=26.5% model=0.8% · edge=+25.7%
EDGE Seoul · 14°C YES· market=15.0% model=70.2% · edge=+53.2%
EDGE Dubai · 30°C YES· market=42.1% model=78.3% · edge=+35.6%
❯
583
Weather Markets
4
Forecast Models
15min
BTC Windows
0.25x
Kelly Sizing
Binance+CB
Price Feeds
Features

Everything you need to
trade profitably

Built exclusively for Polymarket weather and crypto markets. Every component is optimised for meteorological data and latency arbitrage.

🌍
4-Model Ensemble
GFS (31 members), ECMWF IFS025 (51 members), UKMO, MeteoFrance. Weighted consensus — 113 total ensemble members per forecast.
ECMWF 35% · GFS 25% · UKMO 20% · MF 20%
📊
Bayesian Edge Calc
Dynamic σ from forecast horizon (0.8° at 6h to 5.5° at 10d+). Normal CDF probabilities blended with NOAA NCEI 10-year base rates.
theoretical EV gating · max 15% bankroll
⚡
Real-Time Scanning
Scans all 583+ active Polymarket weather events every 5 minutes. Auto-detects city, date and temperature unit from question titles.
5 min refresh · 58 cities
🤖
Claude AI Engine
Claude Sonnet analyses each market with forecast data, model agreement scores, and historical base rates. Returns BUY/SKIP with confidence tier.
Powered by Claude Sonnet
🌏
67+ Global Cities
New York, London, Tokyo, Paris, Dubai, Seoul, Sydney, and 60 more. Auto-detects city from Polymarket question titles. Both °F and °C markets.
US NWS obs · intraday blending
🎯
5-Layer Exit System
Profit target (60% edge captured), edge convergence (<2%), trailing stop (40% pullback), stop loss (−15%), time decay (2h before resolution).
Auto-managed positions
Crypto Bot

15-Minute BTC
Latency Edge

Detect price windows on Polymarket's crypto markets with millisecond-precision feeds. Optimal sizing with risk management and toxic flow detection.

⚡
Latency Arbitrage
Detects 15-minute BTC price windows on Polymarket with stale pricing. Real-time comparison against spot reference to exploit mispricing windows.
15min window scan · live arbitrage
📡
Multi-Exchange Feeds
Binance + Coinbase real-time price feeds for accurate reference pricing. Sub-100ms latency updates ensure edge detection before market moves.
Binance + Coinbase · <100ms latency
📈
Kelly-Criterion Sizing
Optimal bet sizing with risk management and toxic flow detection. Prevents overexposure to adverse selection and maintains long-term capital preservation.
0.25x Kelly · toxic flow gate
💾
Paper + Live Mode
Full paper trading simulator with P&L tracking and backtesting. Ready for live execution on Polymarket with optional paper-first validation period.
Paper sim · live ready
Architecture

Scan → Forecast → Edge → Trade

Three automated steps from market discovery to on-chain execution.

01
Market Discovery
Queries Polymarket Gamma API for all weather-tagged events. Parses question titles to extract city, date and temperature unit. Fetches GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, MeteoFrance forecasts in parallel.
02
Edge Calculation + AI
Builds weighted consensus temperature, calculates dynamic σ based on hours-to-resolution and model spread. Runs Normal CDF probabilities per outcome. Claude AI returns BUY_YES/BUY_NO/SKIP with confidence.
03
Paper or Live Execution
When edge exceeds threshold, Trader executes via FOK market order with 2% slippage fallback. Positions tracked with 5-layer exit monitoring. Full SQLite ledger for P&L.
Paris · March 23 · Max Temp
GFS ensemble (31)
13.0°C
ECMWF IFS025 (51)
15.2°C
UKMO global
12.9°C
MeteoFrance
13.9°C
13.5°C
4-Model Consensus · ±1.9°C
Market pricing 17°C YES at 26.5%
→ NO edge: +25.7% 🏆
FAQ

Common questions

What weather models does WeatherEdge use?+
GFS (31-member ensemble), ECMWF IFS025 (51-member ensemble), UKMO, and MeteoFrance. Weighted consensus: ECMWF 35%, GFS 25%, UKMO 20%, MeteoFrance 20%.
How does edge calculation work?+
Builds weighted consensus temperature, calculates dynamic σ based on hours-to-resolution and model spread, runs Normal CDF probabilities per outcome bin, computes edge vs market price, applies quarter-theoretical EV gating capped at 15% bankroll.
What blockchain does it use?+
Polygon blockchain using USDC, connected to Polymarket's Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) via their official API. Private keys never leave your device — all signing happens client-side.
Is the bot running 24/7?+
Yes. Both WeatherEdge and Crypto Bot run on Railway cloud infrastructure continuously, 24/7, even when your computer is off. Weather scans every 5 minutes, crypto feeds update sub-100ms.
How does the Crypto Bot detect latency edges?+
Monitors Polymarket BTC/USDC pairs every 15 minutes. Compares market price against real-time Binance and Coinbase spot feeds. When Polymarket pricing drifts >X% from reference, it signals an arbitrage window. Kelly-criterion sizing ensures optimal risk exposure.

Start trading
with an edge

Paper mode available for both bots — no real money required to start.

⚡ Weather Bot ₿ Crypto Bot